Vics Picks, Week 2: The legend of Gardner Minshew and other exploitable overreactions after the o
We survived last week, going 8-8 against the spread. The first week is always tough, with new coaches and players who didn’t play very much in the preseason.
Week 2 is a lot more fun, as everyone overreacts to ridiculous stuff and you can stroll out and pick some nice juicy winners off the tree.
Take new folk hero Gardner Minshew, who has a glorious mustache and came off the bench for an injured Nick Foles last week in Jacksonville and … completed some passes. They were mostly check-downs against a prevent defense, but the numbers scream out — 22 of 25 passing for 275 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
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The two touchdowns came with the Chiefs up 37-13 on the Jaguars and four minutes remaining.
The rookie out of Washington State was barely drafted and will have a rude welcome to being a starter in an NFL game against the Texans.
There are other overreactions and misconceptions we have to clear up:
Thursday night
Bucs at Panthers (-6.5) — There is a lot of pressure on Jameis Winston this season. He was pretty bad last season and he was terrible in the opener against the 49ers under new coach Bruce Arians. Is this an overreaction on my part and I should go the other way? Nah. The Panthers are my sleeper Super Bowl team and need a win here. Winston’s pocket presence shouldn’t change overnight. PANTHERS
Sunday
49ers at Bengals (-1.5) — Sure looks like Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t trust his knee, and that is enough for me to go with the home team in the battle of pretty even squads. BENGALS
Chiefs (-7) at Raiders — You cannot have a more emotional win than what the Raiders just experienced, winning at home on Monday Night Football after losing the insane star player who danced in his backyard when you cut him — and posted it on social media. The Raiders defense is better but not enough to slow down Patrick Mahomes. CHIEFS
Colts at Titans (-3) — The Colts covered last week and I think they make it two in a row. Jacoby Brissett is good enough at quarterback, T.Y. Hilton is going to have a career year and the defense is good enough that Tennessee’s Derrick Henry won’t run wild. COLTS
Chargers (-2.5) at Lions — I am probably guilty of overreaction myself here, but I didn’t like Detroit’s Matt Patricia as a coach before he went to a prevent defense and blew an 18-point fourth-quarter lead and easy cover against Arizona. Los Angeles is a banged-up road favorite, but the difference between Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford gets bigger by the week. CHARGERS
Bills (-1.5) at Giants — This is a double trap. The Giants defense looked terrible last week. Eli Manning should be long gone and the Bills are actually not bad. But … the line opened a little high and nobody wants to bet Josh Allen as a road favorite. Take the points and enjoy Saquon Barkley putting on a cape. GIANTS
Cardinals at Ravens (-13.5) — First, a tip of the cap to the bookmaker. This is an excellent line. Fans saw the Kyler Murray highlights late in last Sunday’s tie with Detroit and are excited, but I can’t stress to you how bad he was the first three quarters before the Lions started blowing up balloons to celebrate the win. Huge, huge coaching mismatch (and Baltimore’s John Harbaugh has tortured rookie QBs over the years). RAVENS
Patriots (-18.5) at Dolphins — This number opened at 14.5. So everyone is on the tanking Dolphins and that’s probably the right side. But I can’t do it. For one, I expect the Patriots to establish the run this week so the game will be shorter. Give me FitzMagic with a little humidity for surprisingly easy cover. DOLPHINS
Cowboys (-5.5) at Washington — Typical overreaction. People think Case Keenum to Terry McLaurin is actually a formidable connection. This was the type of situation where Adrian Peterson hurt me a couple of times last season, but I have faith in the Cowboys defense, with Dak Prescott slinging it to Michael Gallup to earn a big contract. COWBOYS
Jaguars at Texans (-9) — If Minshew beats me, I will just tip my cap and move on. I will be shocked, though. Houston’s offensive line will be a little better with a week to jell. TEXANS
Seahawks at Steelers (-4) — You don’t replace Antonio Brown with Donte Moncrief. SEAHAWKS
Vikings at Packers (-3) — Overreaction: The Packers defense is incredible. I think the Vikings offense is actually underrated. VIKINGS
Saints at Rams (-2.5) — The Rams got a nice road win last week thanks to some Panthers turnovers. They still seem to be getting the kinks out after blowing off the preseason, and the Saints are coming off a very impressive late win thanks to Drew Brees. Brees should mimic Cam Newton last week and use quick throws to make Aaron Donald a non-factor. Plus this game means more to them because of what happened in last year’s playoffs. SAINTS
Bears (-2.5) at Broncos — Joe Flacco looked flustered against the Raiders defense last week, and now he faces a pass rush three times better in the Bears. And Mitch Trubisky should have a bounce-back game as well. BEARS
Eagles (-1.5) at Falcons — Overreaction: The Falcons are all of a sudden terrible. They should be underdogs at home. Nah. FALCONS
Browns (-6.5) at Jets — The mother of all revenge games. Gregg Williams won more games last year than anyone practically in Cleveland history and was not brought back after his stint as the interim coach. He is now the defensive coordinator for the Jets and probably has a bounty on some of his former players. Also, as shown last week, new Browns coach Freddie Kitchens is in way over his head. Sam Darnold has mono and the line is moving up, so you even get more value. JETS
Pick-5 — Giants, Ravens, Texans, Bears and Jets. 3-2 last week. We were four points away from going 5-0.
Record — 8-8 against the spread last week.
(Photo: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
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